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Floor price trend forecasted greatly 2006: Will still continue to rise 5%-7%
From;    Author:Stand originally
Enter after December 2005, ceaselessly media friend makes a telephone call, affirm a few point of views that I offerred 2005, especially I am right of house price issue forecast, make an appointment with me to talk 2006 the development trend of estate market. The point of view that is sure I go I am very gratified, but talk forecast be rejected by me more. Because talk about the thing that forecasting is a very earnest, science, in the past every time advert is forecasted, I sweat of frontal eminence ooze, tooth chatters, on back of for fear that " bullshit " , " hype " renown. Market of current China estate is in special development period, the factor that affects it and force are very complex, although big development trend is clear, but should undertake forecasting to year tendercy and incident, need deep, comprehensive relevant course knowledge already, need again general trends can hold on thinking and eye shot, still need to follow policymaker of central high level some " interior induction " -- so, tipster is not to stand in " crossed " crossing, however " wintersweet " crossing, think the fault is very easy, want to forecast right a little " empyreal take a month " tasted.

But, in the last day 2005, my mobile phone got the information like firecracker " bomb " -- besides the blessing, let me calculate room value namely, and emphasize " the professor that gets estate repeatedly does not talk " , namely " the morality and justice that ignores a learned man " , " without sense of responsibility " , " without courage " . Since everybody " diligent in an attempt to " , I am forced to sacrifice a bit breathing space, talk casually with everybody.

1

Estate price still rises, but become " docile " some.

Estimation general with 7% for fulcrum, fluctuate up and down 2 percent, namely 5%-9% , under or be close to GDP to increase rate, it is in order to be on the possibility of 5%-7% among them big. This is business of government, development, consumer each Fang Jun's acceptable growth rate, also be achievement of national adjusting control reflect. Although oneself not from the high level smell gets what information over there the policymaker, but the main goal that I am certain the amplitude of 5%-9% will be estate value adjusting control.

Although always scholastic view leaves the price that pull a house forcibly, but GDP still is in rapid growth, should let room value " do exactly the opposite " , this as good as at " idiotic nonsense " ! If under 5% , if not was to encounter " SARS " such extremely special event, show data has moisture content.

2

Urban land control can appear " there is a pine in tightening " evidence.

"8.31 " before be restricted greatly although the government put a few land centrally, but the administration of land market is closer than before still after be restricted greatly, this is really influential to developing the market, affecting market supply demand relations then. If demand is not moved, want to command house price, can increase supply ability to achieve a goal only, but should increase supply to be about to put the land.
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